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Volume 38 Issue 5
November 7, 2000

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Promises, promises
Candidates entice voters with vows of better life

BY J.W. WATSON
MESA LEGEND
Submitted November 7, 2000

The American voters have read their lips. In a backlash, are they shouting “NO NEW PROMISES!”?

Photos by Kim Patterson and Bob Estrin/ MESA LEGEND

“Voters want to know what the candidates are going to do,” said Dr. Gerald Pomper, a professor at Rutgers University’s Institute of Politics and author of several books chronicling every presidential election since 1976.

“When George Bush broke his promise to not raise taxes (in 1988), he could have explained his position better than he did. He could have gone to the American people and said ‘Look, things have changed.’ But he didn’t.

“Still, campaign promises carry a lot of weight. One of the first things Jimmy Carter did when he became president was to get a list of all the promises he’d made during his campaign so that throughout his administration, he could look back and check them off as he went.”

Other politicians aren’t as meticulous.

“There’s one campaign promise I made that I wish I wouldn’t have,” said Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio (Rep.), seeking election for the third time since 1992.

“When I ran for sheriff the first time, I said I’d be a one-term sheriff,” Arpaio said. “What I was trying to say was that I believe the sheriff should be appointed, not elected.

“Well, it didn’t work out that way.”

Candidates should shy away from campaign promises altogether, according to Arizona State Sen. Pete Rios (Dem.), who represents a largely rural constituency in Pinal County.

Rios acknowledged the growing suspicion voters have of candidates who make promises, but more importantly, he believes, most campaign vows cannot be implemented by a governor, senator or president  when they must depend on others to follow through.

“How can one person really deliver when there are so many other elements involved?” said Rios, the State Senate’s Minority Whip.

“That’s why I don’t make campaign promises. I have always told my constituency that I will keep in mind the needs of the district and that I will work my hardest to make sure those are taken care of.

“But both the Arizona Senate and House of Representatives are controlled by Republicans. I may be a little more prone to make promises if that weren’t the case.”

In 1992, then-presidential candidate Bill Clinton promised to bring a task force to the White House to create affordable healthcare for all Americans. While the issue was addressed within the first 60 days of his administration, as promised, Clinton has never been able to successfully implement any changes to the current system, a problem ASU political science professor Kim Kahn attributes mostly to money matters and partisan politics.

“Any presidential candidate has to be careful when they say they will create programs that are not in their control,” Kahn said. “A national healthcare reform plan will largely depend on the budget, which the President has no control over. And the rest lies with Congress.

“When (Republican nominee George W.) Bush and (Democratic nominee Al) Gore promise you social security will be there, they have to be careful.

“But I think that both of them have been so explicit on their promises already, it could come back to hurt them.”

In his 1980 book “Elections in America,” after studying and analyzing all White House administrations between 1944 and 1976, Pomper found that, surprisingly, more than 70 percent of all campaign promises have actually been fulfilled, with the remaining 30 percent of the promises either ignored or unsuccessful at reaching fruition.

“The promises were classified at different levels of specificity, such as ‘I’m going to do something about this problem’ to some that were more specific, like ‘I’m going to raise minimum wage by a dollar.’ There were different degrees of fulfillment.

“In doing the same research on the administrations since 1980, I am continuing to arrive at that same number — 70 percent.”

Regardless of the results, Arpaio believes a campaign wouldn’t be one without promises.

“How can you predict which promises will turn out and which won’t? They are part of the campaign, and they need to be made.”

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